Champions League preview: AC Milan vs Napoli, Real Madrid vs Chelsea
AC Milan vs Napoli
Milan made it through the round of 16 against a lethargic Tottenham side that couldn’t score a goal over the two legs. You’d assume that Napoli will put up a tougher fight – despite recent evidence to the contrary.
Stefano Pioli’s Milan have won just one of their last six games in all competitions. Notably though, that win came against runaway league leaders Napoli, with Milan beating Luca Spalletti’s side 4-0 at the Maradona Stadium at the start of April.
That’s Napoli’s second league defeat in the space of a month, and adds an unusual uncertainty to the outcome, given the Naples team are joint second favourites to win the competition at 7/2 while AC Milan are outsiders at 20/1.
It’s the first time Napoli have ever made it this far in the competition, while Milan are old hands – seven-time winners, having last being crowned champions in 2007.
Napoli are without the pivotal Victor Osimhen, who was also absent when Milan beat them earlier this month. Spalletti’s side will obviously miss their prolific striker; can they come up with a creditable plan B?
Whatever the result, it might be worth looking at recent history to figure out the bet here. In Napoli’s last four Champions League games, only one side has scored; Milan’s last six CL matches have each seen just one side score, too.
Four of the last five meetings between these sides have ended with just one side getting on the scoresheet too. Both Teams To Score No is a 5/6 shot.
If you want something a little livelier, Olivier Giroud might still be the likeliest goal scorer for the hosts. He’s already scored four goals so far in this CL campaign, and is 5/1 to score the opener here.
Real Madrid vs Chelsea
Frank Lampard’s second stint in charge of Chelsea started in undistinguished style, with a defeat to Wolves.
Lamps comes across well in press conferences. But the weight of evidence during his time with Chelsea, and more recently Everton, suggests he may be out of his depth in this company. The west London side couldn’t possibly get the better of Real Madrid at the Bernabeu – could they?!
At the very least, rapid improvement is required. Chelsea managed one shot on target against Wolves on Saturday. The Blues are winless in their last four league games.
Perhaps the players will raise their game on the big stage, but they lost to Dortmund in the away leg of the round of 16. Real may offer a more formidable threat – even if they’ve lost two of their last three league games, too.
Defeats to Barcelona and Villarreal offer some crumb of comfort for Chelsea, but in this competition Real seem unlikely to slip up against a side that are horribly underachieving.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side have won all their home games in the CL this season. And while Chelsea’s defence has actually been reasonably good in general, even that has wobbled in recent weeks, the side conceding goals at home to both Aston Villa and Everton.
The eye is drawn to goal scorers for the hosts. Benzema is an obvious selection and is 27/25 to score at any time. But Vinicius Junior might be worth a look too. He’s scored in his last two games in all comps, and the Brazilian also has six Champions League goals in this campaign. Vinicius is 43/20 to find the net on Wednesday.
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