Champions League preview: Bayern Munich vs Villarreal, Real Madrid vs Chelsea
Bayern Munich vs Villarreal
Julian Nagelsmann is seeking to steer Bayern to a seventh Champions League title. But his club suffered a shock defeat in the first leg of this quarter-final, going a goal down to Unai Emery’s side.
It’s worth remembering that in the previous round, the Bundesliga giant also struggled. That was away to RB Salzburg – at home, they beat the Austrians 7-1. Could Villarreal be in for a similarly painful night on Tuesday?
The Spanish side’s best results of late have come in the Champions League, with Emery’s team beating Juventus 3-0 in Turin last month. Indeed, for the La Liga match against Athletic Bilbao on Saturday the coach changed his entire team, effectively resting his first eleven for this match.
Emery’s stature when it comes to European cup competitions, and his side’s ability to get under the skin of heavy hitters, suggests the home win isn’t a completely foregone conclusion.
Still, it would be a huge scalp if Villarreal could come to the Allianz Arena and send Bayern out of the competition this week. The hosts remain clear favourites to progress.
Bayern may have to work to break down a Villarreal side that seem to reserve their most obdurate performances for this competition, though. Villarreal have conceded one goal in their last three Champions League games. Another goal-heavy performance from the hosts seems unlikely.
Combine Bayern to win and under 3.5 goals in a double, for a 7/5 shot.
Real Madrid vs Chelsea
Thomas Tuchel has already declared this tie over, in the wake of his team’s defeat at Stamford Bridge last week.
Was the German attempting to inspire his players to prove him wrong? Or simply voicing his true desolate mindset, following Karim Benzema’s hat-trick for the visiting Real Madrid?
Whatever, Chelsea were back in ominous form in the Premier League at the weekend, smashing six past a pitiful Southampton. If the Blues can retain that spirit at the Bernabeu on Tuesday, perhaps the West London club’s goose isn’t cooked just yet.
Chelsea may be able to make a game of it, then. But it’s impossible to ignore Benzema’s current form. Even if I did a pretty good job of doing just that a week ago.
Karim the Dream has scored back-to-back hat-tricks in his last two Champions League matches. He has scored in seven of his last eight games in all competitions, plundering 13 goals over that period.
Benzema is 34/1 to score another hat-trick on Tuesday. He’s only 15/2 to score two goals here – understandable, given he has scored two or more goals in four of his last five appearances. The French striker looks irresistible, even if you take him to score first at 19/5. That bet came off in two of his last three appearances.
Other than that, it would be an incredible collapse if Real were to lose at home after that convincing first leg performance. Then again, Ancelotti did see his side lose 4-0 to Barcelona in Madrid last month.
Perhaps this will be a Champions League blockbuster for the ages. With the visitors needing to go for it, at least there’s potential for a few goals here. Backing over 3.5 goals at 41/20 could be worth a look.
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