Euro 2020: Croatia vs Spain, France vs Switzerland
Croatia vs Spain
There’s talk going around that Croatia could be a decent option here in Copenhagen – but while they put in a good showing against Scotland, they’ve generally been unexceptional in the last few years. Maybe the price of 11/2 is what’s grabbing the attention.
For Spain, they’ve had a slow start to the Euros but even after missing a penalty in their final group game they still managed to score five goals in that outing (against, yes, Slovakia, not the toughest of opposition).
Croatia are surely past their best, while that goal bonanza for Luis Enrique’s team should have bolstered confidence in a side that experienced much frustration in their early games. And Croatia will also have to do without Ivan Perisic, who has tested positive for Covid-19.
Croatia will look to recent history as inspiration, perhaps – at Euro 2016, they beat Spain 2-1 to finish above them in the group stage. Still, a couple of years later Spain dished out a 6-0 shellacking to the Croats in the Nations League – that’s Croatia’s heaviest ever defeat.
I understand the appeal of backing an underdog at a bigger price – and it certainly worked for the Czechs on Sunday. But Spain may have clicked into gear at the right time; assuming their woes finding the net are at an end, Enrique’s team could have the Croats outclassed.
Croatia have kept just two clean sheets in their last 18 games, a stat which should make for an inviting prospect for the three-times Euros champions. The favourites probably won’t run riot in the style of their last match, however – backing Spain to win and Under 3.5 goals gives you a double of 21/20.
France vs Switzerland
One of the tournament favourites, it will be a shock if France don’t dispatch this Swiss side in Bucharest on Monday. France finished top of their group (of death, no less), while Switzerland had to settle for third place in their own group, behind Wales and group winners Italy.
The French also boast a team stuffed with talent like Paul Pogba, Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann and Karim Benzema, and you sense they haven’t really shown their true potential yet, content to get the job done rather than anything more spectacular.
Coach Didier Deschamps has been criticised for taking a team rich with potential creativity and stifling it to some degree. But if the French are less adventurous than you’d hope, their success cannot be doubted, with the side winning the World Cup three years ago.
In some ways it’s been a low key start for France, with draws against both Portugal and, more surprisingly, Hungary. But more generally, the French have lost just a single game in their last 23 matches, in a run dating back almost two years.
The Swiss plan is to try to nullify the French threat and hit them on the counter; but Switzerland were comfortably outplayed by Italy in the group stage.
Taking a wider view, in the last 12 months Croatia, Spain and Belgium have all been able to beat Vladimir Petkovic’s side. If the French are on form, they will surely have too much for this opposition.
France are 8/13 to win at full time; after scoring twice against Portugal last time out, Karim Benzema is 4/1 to find the opener here.
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