Paul vs Fury betting preview: who wins?
A freak show. YouTuber against Love Island heart throb. Fraud against fraud. Sunday evening’s fight between Jake Paul and Tommy Fury has been described as many things but what can’t be denied is that this will be one of the biggest and most anticipated boxing events of 2023.
Fury has yet to lose and must feel insulted – and infuriated – by the bookmakers odds. Paul – who has never faced a true professional boxer – is favourite to take his scalp and continue his own unbeaten run. For the latest fight odds, visit our sportsbook.
If you are interested in the details, the weight limit for the fight is 185lbs and it will be fought over eight three minute rounds. Let’s be honest though, those facts are trivialities. We all just want to see what happens.
PEDIGREE
Paul has none. That isn’t a harsh viewpoint and it isn’t rubbishing his achievements. It is a cliche but anybody who agrees to fight another man in front of a worldwide audience deserves respect.
It is almost impossible to gauge how talented Paul is though because he has yet to face a professional boxer capable of capitalising on his mistakes. Tyrone Woodley and Anderson Silva were MMA greats in their day but those days were far behind them when Paul beat them in the boxing ring.
Bizarrely, there are some boxes that Paul can put a big tick in that Fury would have to leave blank. He has boxed fighters who are used to winning and has completed eight rounds twice. He has tasted his own blood and held his nerve when the eyes of the world are focused on him. And he has also shown the ruthless ability to finish hurt opponents. Granted, he has yet to do it against a true boxer but he has passed a couple of important character checks.
Fury’s professional record has attracted plenty of criticism but the simple fact of the matter is that he has been matched in exactly the same way that any young, inexperienced prospect would be. Fury has a name and a big profile and any matchmaker trying to get him beaten early in his career would have quickly found themselves in the unemployment line.
Fury’s pedigree comes from sparring some of the most accomplished names in British boxing and spending time in the country’s top gyms. Fury has been involved in the sport since he was a youngster and has seen his brother, Tyson, conquer the world. He will have spent thousands of hours working on his craft and also built up that natural fitness and hardness that comes from spending time in the ring. Fury may not be a blue chip prospect but he is steeped in boxing.
WHO HAS THE MOST TO LOSE?
Paul’s boxing roadshow has hit crazy heights and generated outrageous amounts of money. He has been raking in millions by choosing accomplished but old mixed martial artists to practice on and could have chosen to fight literally anybody in the world but he hand-picked Fury. That means Paul is either extremely confident in winning or is so sure of his drawing power that he isn’t too concerned that a loss will derail his gravy train.
That – coupled with his bank balance – may lead you to believe Paul may not be as hungry as Fury. But for some reason, Paul has decided to raise the stakes and take a real risk in the toughest business there is. There is also the fairly important fact that Paul actually wants to fight. Boxing training is horrible and hard and losing weight isn’t easy for the hungriest of fighters, let alone one with millions of reasons not to do it.
Fury cannot afford to lose. ‘TNT’ was born into the business and as the brother of WBC heavyweight champion, Tyson, all the money in the world won’t be enough to ease a feeling of humiliation if he allows somebody who made their bones on the Disney Channel to beat him.
Fury is also carrying the hopes of the boxing world. Many people involved with the professional sport have poured scorn on the Youtube boxing bandwagon and singled Paul out as its ringleader. Whether it is through jealousy at the money he makes or disbelief at the attention he draws, Paul has become public enemy number one. They are desperate for a true boxer to prove that their sport is too dangerous to be infiltrated by a part-timer. Fury enters the fight with far more pressure and expectation than Paul.
WHAT HAPPENS?
If Fury refuses to get caught up in the hype, holds his nerve and imposes himself from the first bell, he should win comfortably. It is one thing preying on older, hand-picked opponents, it is quite another to be on the back foot, sucking air into burning lungs and struggling to raise lactic acid filled arms whilst an ambitious, trained boxer attempts to take your head off. Paul might get a sudden and rude introduction to real boxing.
If Fury allows the occasion to affect him and he ends up in a tense stand off with Paul, his anxiety levels will quickly begin to rise and the pressure of the evening will begin to weigh heavily on those boulder-like shoulders. Every time Paul lands a punch, the questions, criticism and self doubt will become deafening. If he allows Paul to get any kind of foothold, it doesn’t take too much of a stretch of the imagination to envisage Fury sleepwalking to an entirely avoidable defeat.
That shouldn’t happen. The pick is for Fury to impose himself from the opening bell and stop Paul inside four rounds. Fury is 5/1 to win inside four rounds – find all the markets here
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