Premier League preview: Saturday’s action including Chelsea vs Arsenal
Liverpool vs Everton
It’s two league games without a win for Liverpool, and Everton’s improved form is encouraging – the side have three wins from their last four in all competitions. But visits to Anfield rarely prove fruitful.
Everton did win here in February 2021, and they held Liverpool to draws here in 2014 and 2017. Is there hope for Sean Dyche’s side is this latest Merseyside derby, then? Well, the Reds haven’t dropped a point at home yet this season.
Even the supposed curse of the lunchtime kick-off may be less of a factor. Last month when the Reds kicked off at 12:30 away to Wolves, they won 3-1.
In fact, Liverpool have scored three goals in each of their league home games this season, as well as putting three past Leicester in the League Cup last month.
And Dyche may have built his reputation on sturdy defences, but Everton have kept just one clean sheet in this campaign (last time out, when they beat Bournemouth 3-0, admittedly).
This looks like another game where there could be plenty of scoring; over 3.5 goals is a 26/25 shot.
Bournemouth vs Wolves
With Wolves having beat Man City and held Villa to a draw in their last couple of games, it’s not hard to fancy Gary O’Neil’s side for this one. Particularly since the Wolves manager would take great delight in putting one over on the club that sacked him in the summer.
It’s probably an understatement to say that O’Neil’s replacement, Andoni Iraola will be similarly keen for Bournemouth to put in a good showing. But so far, the pre-season buzz around Iraola hasn’t translated into results.
Without a win in the Premier League, Bournemouth have lost their last three Prem games. They’ve also failed to score at all in their last three league games at the Vitality.
Wolves aren’t always reliable – they’ve only managed one win in their last five. But with a very motivated manager facing opposition that are misfiring under Iraola, the visitors may well get the job done. The Wolves win is a 39/20 shot.
Brentford vs Burnley
It’s three defeats in four for Brentford, whose sole victory this season came back in August. Of course, Burnley would appear to be beatable opposition – but Vincent Kompany’s side did score their first three points in the Prem with a 2-1 win over Luton at the start of October.
The Bees suffered defeat to Everton in their last league home game, which should give Kompany encouragement that Thomas Frank’s side can be got at. Still, with neither team exactly a sure thing right now, perhaps Both Teams To Score Yes is a relatively safe approach.
That bet would have worked out in six of Brentford’s eight league games, and five of Burnley’s. Backing BTTS Yes at 4/5 looks a good shout.
Man City vs Brighton
Man City might be the Death Star of modern football, but even Death Stars have their weaknesses it seems. The Manchester club have lost three of their last four games, and currently trail both north London clubs in the league table. To extend the Star Wars analogy, we might have “a new hope” for a title race! For a bit.
City’s uncharacteristic vulnerability in recent games should be cause for optimism for Roberto De Zerbi. But maybe it’s a good idea not to be too bullish on the south coast side’s chances of adding to City’s current undistinguished run.
Each of Guardiola’s last three defeats have come on the road; City have won each of their home games this season.
Perhaps more importantly, City’s iffy streak has coincided with Rodri’s three match ban. The Spanish star’s absence may have acted as City’s very own thermal exhaust port; alas, he’s served that ban now. With Rodri’s return, the Manchester side’s merciless capacity for destruction may be fully operational once again.
Brighton themselves, if it’s escaped your notice, are on a shaky run of their own – it’s just one win in six games in all comps for the Seagulls. Last time out they drew against Liverpool 2-2; before that there was the stunning 6-1 defeat away to Aston Villa.
With City odds-on for victory, and Brighton not always looking a force to be reckoned with in the build-up to this one, it’s possibly better to focus on goals – an approach that’s rarely let us down with the Seagulls this season.
No need for jedi-mind tricks, just back over 3.5 goals. City have scored three against the Seagulls in each of their last two visits to the Etihad, while all but one of Brighton’s matches in all comps this season has featured at least four goals. Over 3.5 goals is a 10/11 shot here.
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace
Newcastle are looking solid enough at the moment. A visit from Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace seems unlikely to wrong-foot Eddie Howe.
Palace’s last game before the break was a goalless draw with Forest, and the side have scored just one goal in their last four games in all comps.
That modest run may not improve against a Newcastle side who have kept clean sheets in three of their last four home games; in the remaining match, they restricted Paris Saint-Germain to a consolation goal as they won 4-1 in the Champions League.
Palace presumably remain without Eberechi Eze, who is recovering from a hamstring injury – that’s a big miss for the Eagles. All of which suggests this should be relatively straightforward for the hosts. Combine Newcastle to win and BTTS No in a double at 5/4.
Nottingham Forest vs Luton
Forest’s only league defeats this season have come against big guns Man City, Man Utd and Arsenal; Steve Cooper will surely eye this visit from the Hatters as an eminently winnable occasion. Can Luton possibly pull off a surprise at the City Ground?
Rob Edwards’ side’s sole win this season came on the road against Everton. But they’ve lost all but one of their remaining games, and were beaten at Kenilworth Road by Burnley earlier this month.
Only one of Forest’s matches this season has seen more than three goals scored. So backing the hosts to win in a double with under 3.5 goals makes sense; that bet is available at 6/5.
Chelsea vs Arsenal
Have Chelsea got their head out of their ass at last? Mauricio Pochettino is on a three-game winning streak, but now the Blues host a side challenging for the title. Will Chelsea rise to the challenge or crumble in the face of Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal?
It sounds odd given the West London side’s previous dominance, but Chelsea have lost five of their last six Prem meetings with the Gunners. And Pochettino’s Spurs connection means Arsenal fans will take extra satisfaction in getting one over on the Argentine at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea look to be genuinely improving under Poch, and winning this game would be a significant statement. But Arsenal remain favourites for good reason – not least because, the 4-1 win over Burnley notwithstanding, Chelsea have struggled for goals.
The Gunners have kept clean sheets in their last three away games. They kept Man City at bay before the international break too, winning 1-0. On current form it’s tough to look past the away win; back Arsenal at 5/4.
Sheffield United vs Man United
A tale of two Uniteds, and neither of them are currently doing a far, far better thing than they have ever done. Though which of Paul Heckingbottom or Erik ten Hag ends up getting the figurative guillotine first is still to be determined.
The hosts have earned a single point so far in this campaign; by their own standards, Man Utd aren’t faring much better, with six defeats already in all competitions.
Even their most recent win before the international break was touch and go, the Manchester side trailing to Brentford at Old Trafford with the final whistle looming. United turned things round there, but there’s a sense the team have regressed considerably, after the positive impact of Ten Hag’s first season in charge.
Does that mean the visitors come a cropper at Bramall Lane? It’s more likely this will be another underpowered, unspectacular win for the Red Devils.
Bruno Fernandes to have over 2.5 shots at 10/11 could be the way to approach this one; Fernandes should enjoy opportunities against this side, and the Portuguese star has registered 25 shots so far in his eight league appearances so far this season.
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