Premier League preview: Saturday’s action including Liverpool vs Leeds
Leicester vs Man City
Unbeaten in three games and winning their last two, it seems as though Leicester are finally building a bit of confidence. So it’s a mite inconvenient that they host Pep Guardiola’s unstoppables in the lunchtime kick-off.
Still, maybe it’s a good time to meet the Manchester side. The Citizens have won just one of their last four games in all comps, Haaland might be ill/injured – and City have already dropped points on their travels this season, drawing away to Newcastle and Aston Villa.
Brendan Rodgers couldn’t be about to do a job on Pep, surely? Even mindful as I am of the curse of the lunchtime kick-off, it’s tough to forget the long list of defeats Leicester have racked up in this campaign already.
After conceding five goals to Brighton and six goals to Tottenham last month (on the road, admittedly), it feels pretty optimistic to think they’re capable of keeping a lid on City’s frequently superlative play, even improving as they are.
A narrow Man City win seems the likeliest outcome – and City to win and under 3.5 goals at 11/8 fits the bill.
Bournemouth vs Spurs
It’s one win in six for the Cherries, and Gary O’Neil’s team have lost back-to-back games in the run-up to this one. Can Bournemouth stop the rot against a Tottenham side that have also been turned over in their last two league outings?
Spurs also suffered VAR-inspired misery in their midweek Champions League game, a last-gasp Harry Kane match-winner chalked off for being offside – much to Antonio Conte’s fury. The Spurs coach was red carded in the dying moments of the game.
With both sides suffering at the moment, under 2.5 goals at 17/20 might be the safest course of action. That bet has paid off in this fixture in the past two seasons, and also in three of Bournemouth’s last four home games. Spurs have scored just three goals across their last four away games, too.
Brentford vs Wolves
After shipping four goals against a resurgent Aston Villa last week, Brentford look to correct their course against a Wolves side with woes of their own.
Managerless and miserable, the visitors have slipped to 19th in the Prem. Even Wolves’ reputation for keeping it tight has collapsed, the Old Gold losing 4-0 at home to Leicester a week ago.
There might be an unwanted symmetry in Brentford and Wolves’ most recent performances. But fundamentally, the Bees look in better shape than their opponents and should assert themselves against a side that have lost five of their last six – and scored five goals all season.
With that record in mind it might be worth backing Brentford to win to nil at 11/4; if you prefer to keep it simple, the hosts are 59/50 for the straightforward win.
Brighton vs Chelsea
Graham Potter returns to Brighton with his former side still looking for their first win since Potter’s departure. That’s pretty unfortunate, given the Seagulls have basically continued to look a decent side – albeit one that doesn’t score often enough.
By contrast, Chelsea are enjoying life under their new coach, unbeaten since Potter’s arrival. Earlier this week they clinched their place in the Champions League round of 16; now they look to start winning again in the Prem, after back-to-back draws with Brentford and Man Utd.
Brighton have lost three of their last four; will the home players rouse themselves to earn a spectacular, unexpected victory against the man who inspired them so recently?
Perhaps Brighton really can get something from this game. But even if that’s too ambitious, the hosts will surely go hell for leather trying to find the net. Brighton are 19/20 to have over 12.5 shots…
Crystal Palace vs Southampton
Palace were overpowered against Everton a week ago, the Toffees turning over Patrick Vieira’s side 3-0. But the Eagles have won their last two home games; can they rack up another victory against Southampton, who are showing signs of resurgence?
It’s tough to be overly confident about either side’s chances on Saturday. The Saints held Arsenal to a draw last time out, and beat Bournemouth away before that. But Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side flounder as often as they flourish.
Five of Palace’s six home games this season have seen both sides score, however. Both Teams To Score is 22/25; with the Saints finding the net in four of their last five, it’s worth a look.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa
The Magpies have won four of their last five, and would look like a sure thing to take three points against Villa – if not for the fact the Midlands club were a side reborn against Brentford last week.
Three goals to the good within the first 15 minutes, the side eventually won 4-0. Adding to the post-Gerrard good vibes around the club, Villa have acted quickly to bring former Arsenal coach Unai Emery on board.
Emery won’t take charge ‘til November – but it seems likely the visitors will at least put in a battling performance against Eddie Howe’s minted Mags this week. Will that be enough? Well, Howe’s side have lost once all season, conceding just 10 goals…
That impressive defensive record is not to be ignored; particularly given Villa have scored just three away goals in this campaign. Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 might not be the most pulse-racing bet out there, but it’s paid off in four of Newcastle’s six home games so far this season.
Fulham vs Everton
Fulham have impressed with wins against Villa and Leeds in recent weeks, but now they host an Everton side that are tricky to get a handle on.
The Toffees have lost three of their last four matches – but ended that run with a rousing 3-0 victory over Crystal Palace a week ago.
Given Fulham’s home advantage and the fact they’ve strung a couple of wins together, taking a punt on the Cottagers seems the better option.
Four of Fulham’s five wins this season have come with a one goal margin of victory. With that in mind, rather than back the straightforward win at 27/20, you could consider backing Fulham to win by one goal in the Exact Winning Margin market, at 3/1.
Liverpool vs Leeds
The loss to Nottingham Forest a week ago was another mood-blackening moment for Jurgen Klopp. But Leeds’ current issues put Liverpool’s problems into perspective. Too much effin’ perspective, as David St. Hubbins might observe.
Jesse Marsch has seen his side lose four games on the bounce; Leeds are winless in eight matches. A trip to Anfield looks a hugely unlikely opportunity to arrest that decline.
And Liverpool’s last two encounters with Leeds have seen them win by an aggregate of 9-0. Even if the Reds rather less rampant at the moment, they did beat Man City 1-0 a few weeks ago.
The hosts may still be looking to iron out a few kinks, but even after midweek action in the Champions League – a 3-0 away victory over Ajax – they should have too much for this opposition.
Darwin Nunez has scored in four of his last five appearances for Liverpool; the Uruguayan striker can get on the scoresheet again here. Nunez is 19/20 to score at any time.
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