Spence vs Crawford betting preview: two world class talents, but who wins?
The wait is finally over. On Saturday night, Errol Spence Junior and Terence Crawford meet in Las Vegas and will finally decide who the best welterweight on the planet is. For the latest fight odds, visit our sportsbook.
This is a better welterweight fight than an old Floyd Mayweather finally taking on a slightly faded Manny Pacquaio back in 2015. It might just be the best match up at the weight since Felix ‘Tito’ Trinidad faced off with ‘The Golden Boy’ Oscar De La Hoya in 1999. It’s a fight which sits comfortably alongside some of the greatest 147lb fights in boxing history. It promises to have the twists and turns of the wonderful first fight between Sugar Ray Leonard and Thomas Hearns and the tension and drama of Roberto Duran’s outstanding, technical mugging of Leonard.
So, who wins? Will career welterweight Spence continue his dominance at 147lbs and set himself up for a move to light middleweight or after winning a title at lightweight and then unifying the 140lb division, can Crawford claim all the belts at welterweight and prove himself one of the great fighters of all time?
ADAPTABILITY
For all his natural fighting talent, Crawford’s adaptability is his greatest asset. He can totally defuse an opponent and tame them seemingly at ease or he can engage them and beat them in a fight. He can box brilliantly as an orthodox fighter but is arguably even better when he switches to the southpaw stance. And he is also extremely comfortable wrestling in the clinch. Maybe the best illustration of his versatility came in his stoppage of Shawn Porter. Informed by his corner that there were rumours he was losing the fight on the scorecards after nine rounds, Crawford instantly switched to predator mode and stopped Porter in the tenth.
Spence is less complicated but equally as effective. The basics are done brilliantly well and he is extremely accurate, particularly to the body. He will follow a plan and chip away with punishing shots. Spence can be methodical but proved his heart and toughness by going to war with Shawn Porter in a tremendous battle. Spence can do it all.
ACHIEVEMENTS
Spence has been a welterweight champion since beating Kell Brook back in 2017 and has been untouchable since, beating talented fighters like Lamont Peterson and Danny Garcia and taking Shawn Porter’s WBC belt and relieving Yordenis Ugas of his WBA strap. Spence has slowly but surely cleaned out his era of welterweights until only Crawford remains. There have been times when fans might have wanted to see him extend himself rather than taking the safe but sound route but Spence is unbeaten in 28 fights and has been operating at an elite level for years.
Crawford first announced himself as a world class talent when he ventured across the Atlantic to beat Scotland’s Ricky Burns for the WBO lightweight tile in 2014. After defending the belt against the excellent Yuriorkis Gamboa he stepped up to 140lbs and tore through the division, collecting all four belts inside 3 years. Since stepping unto welterweight, Crawford has been at his best, stopping all seven opponents including Shawn Porter, Kell Brook, Amir Khan, Jose Benevidez and Egidijus Kavaliauskas. Over three weight classes and 39 fights, Crawford has been almost untouchable.
POWER
Spence is a big, big welterweight. Making the weight limit must be a struggle and maybe that is reflected in his performances. Spence isn’t the type to load up on big power shots or gamble on an early knockout, he will happily box, chip away and sap his opponents’ will and energy with his outstanding body work. He is also an outstanding finisher when the opportunity presents itself.
Crawford isn’t a one punch knockout artist but his accuracy and variety makes him a frightening prospect. Although he started his world title run 12lbs down the ladder at lightweight, he has become a strong natural welterweight and has stopped his last ten opponents, seven of them at 147lbs. Maybe a couple of those victims (Amir Khan and Kell Brook being prime examples) were shopworn versions of their former selves but Crawford has terrorised them.
Neither man is likely to end a nip and tuck fight with a single fight ending shot. But both are more than capable of setting enough traps for the other to fall into and both will finish the fight given the opportunity.
CHIN
We are really scratching around to find a weakness in either man. Spence has stated that he thought Crawford suffered a knockdown against Egidijus Kavaliauskas (although it wasn’t counted as such) and the only stops about Spence being badly hurt come from his sparring sessions with Floyd Mayweather years ago.
No, both fighters are rock solid to head and body and mentally just as tough.
ACTIVITY
As with most top fighters, Crawford has boxed just three times in three years and Spence has been seen only three times in almost four years. Spence has suffered some serious injuries (most seriously a detached retina) and was involved in two serious car crashes. But it is undeniable that two fighters who were amongst the most active in the sport have slowed down considerably.
Bigger fights are harder to make and pay more money so it is perfectly natural that both Spence and Crawford will want to ration their appearances these days. After all, Spence is 32 and Crawford is now 35.
Who will deal with the relative inactivity better? This shouldn’t be a problem. Neither man has been in a series or wars and both will be trained to perfection ahead of the biggest night of their career. Maybe Spence will be weakened slightly more by boiling himself down to 147lbs again but – boxing being how it is these days – if he felt it was going to have a severely detrimental affect, then the pair might well be fighting at a catchweight.
WHO WINS
Crawford is an outstanding fighter but the odds seem too short. This is as close to a 50:50 fight as it is possible to get.
Crawford is the more versatile fighter. He is a natural welterweight and he has developed power, proven by his long string of knockout victories. He is also a true natural fighter. Crawford is as cold as ice. No-nonsense, ruthless and calculating. He isn’t exactly a slow starter but does like to take a round or two to figure things out.
Spence can be more cautious. He will be bigger and stronger when the first bell rings but he has to work extremely hard to make welterweight. It will be interesting to see how long those advantages last. Spence is a brutal body puncher and an excellent finisher when the opportunity arises although, if he finds his rhythm quickly, it is extremely difficult to shake him out of it.
It is extremely tempting to pick Spence to control things with hard single shots from range early and sap Crawford’s energy with his accurate body work. A Spence stoppage is very attractively priced at 13/2 but the time just seems right for Crawford. He may be older but he has accumulated fewer battle scars. Crawford can find just enough variety to edge a nip and tuck, high quality fight on points, available at 7/4 with 32Red.
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