Usyk vs Dubois betting preview: inspired Oleksandr or Dan to do the business?

Daniel Dubois has been guided towards the heavyweight title since he was a boy. For as long as he can remember he has had it drummed into him that it’s his destiny to follow in the footsteps of greats like Mike Tyson, Evander Holyfield and Lennox Lewis.

This weekend, the 32Red ambassador gets his opportunity to fulfil that destiny. To do it, he must travel to Poland and snatch the unified heavyweight titles from pound-for-pound great, Oleksandr Usyk. As if the task wasn’t daunting enough he will have to do it in a stadium crammed with Usyk’s adoring fellow Ukrainians. For the latest fight odds, visit our sportsbook.

On paper, this seems like an almost insurmountable task for Dubois but it is much easier to imagine an upset in heavyweight boxing than it is at the lower weights. Clichés are clichés for a reason; because they are true. It really can only take one punch from a 17 stone giant and not many hit harder than the Londoner.

If only it were that easy. Dubois will need to be smarter, faster, more patient and more calculating than ever before if he is going to land that life changing shot.

Let’s look a little deeper to see if we can find some value.

EXPERIENCE AND TEMPERAMENT

There isn’t a fighter in the world with as deep a CV as Usyk. As well as claiming an Olympic gold medal in 2012, he enjoyed great success in the ridiculously hard World Series of Boxing and then cleaned up a brutal cruiserweight division, unifying the titles on his way to winning the prestigious World Boxing Super Series.

After dipping his toe into the heavyweight waters against Chaz Witherspoon and Dereck Chisora, Usyk plunged into the deep end against then unified champion, Anthony Joshua, and swam. Usyk was brilliant in both fights with the Londoner.

All of his major victories have come on away ground and he has emerged victorious from truly hostile arenas in Latvia and Russia. Even with war raging in his homeland, Usyk seems totally unflappable and has proven himself able to perform when others may buckle under the weight of pressure and expectation.

Rather than waiting for his own shot at Olympic gold, the quiet, dedicated Dubois decided to go professional as an 18 year old. He was kept busy, learned quickly and has been competing at championship level for years.

He passed his first real test – a British title fight with unbeaten Nathan Gorman – with flying colours but found Joe Joyce to be a step too far. Whilst Joyce was already a hardened fighter with years of experience at the highest level of amateur boxing, the fight was just Dubois’ 16th professional appearance and took place in a strange, sterile environment during the Coronavirus pandemic.

Dubois’ decision to take a knee due to a serious eye injury still hangs over him. But he has rebounded well and scored four straight knockouts. He won the WBA regular title by destroying Trevor Bryan and recovered from a terrible opening round and a severe knee injury to beat Kevin Larena. There have been ups and downs, changes of trainer and hype. For a young man, Dubois has been through a lot but he can’t touch Usyk’s depth of experience.

ABILITY AND POWER

Usyk is a magician. There may not be the blink and you’ll miss him illusions his compatriot and friend Vasyl Lomachenko can pull off but Usyk’s elusive, high energy southpaw style is perfectly suited to his frame. Usyk finds a way to negate the opponents’ strengths whilst – at the same time – figuring out ways to impose his own abilities on them.

He has beaten brawlers and boxers, he has knocked out punchers and worn down marauders. Only Mairis Briedis has gotten close to beating him and he did it by matching Usyk’s prodigious work rate and forcing him to exchange.

Usyk isn’t a one punch knockout artist at heavyweight. But the relentless manner and accuracy of his attacks is hard to cope with. And he always seems to instantly respond with his own attacks if he does get clipped. There are no doubts about his chin, stamina or desire. And if the fight comes down to a final round gut check, good luck in out-fighting him. Usyk is available at 12/5 to win a decision.

Dubois is your classic heavyweight. Big, powerful and upright with a good jab and devastating right hand. The 25-year-old is willing to exchange and lets loose when he gets close. He puts his punches together well and becomes a fearsome prospect when he smells blood.

Not many heavyweights commit to their combinations as wholeheartedly and he mixes in some hard, well picked bodyshots. Joe Joyce showed that it is possible to have success at range. And Kevin Larena put Dubois over early with a shot that landed high on the head.

It is easy to picture Dubois running out of ideas and looking static if faced with a real mover. But he does possess the ability to turn matters around in an instant. Dubois is priced at 8/1 for a knockout.

WHAT HAPPENS?

Usyk deservedly starts as a massive favourite. There will be many who can’t even foresee a way that he could possibly lose to Dubois. Usyk won’t care about Dubois’ clear advantages in size and power. Those will just make Dubois a bigger target and make it all the easier to see what he is planning.

If Usyk can find his range and rhythm early, Dubois could be in for a long night with a never ending stream of shots landing from all angles. Usyk will also up the work rate and tempo as the fight goes on.

Dubois is bigger, younger and hits harder. If anybody is to end the fight suddenly, it is him. Loading up and looking for a single shot would be the worst thing he could do. Usyk is so much faster, he could turn Dubois into a statue.

Ploughing forward, letting his hands go in an all or nothing shot at glory would also be a very risky strategy. Usyk is clever enough to survive and ruthless enough to take advantage of a tired Dubois.

The bodywork mentioned earlier may just be Dubois’ trump card and his best hope of victory. If he can apply steady pressure, hit Usyk as often as he can, wherever he can and really concentrate on a sustained body attack then he will be presented with a much more stationary target.

The prediction is for an inspired Usyk to find his mark early. Dubois won’t fold and will take risks, he may even raise hopes of an upset by initiating a couple of early exchanges. But the difference in foot speed may just be too much to bridge. Usyk can make Dubois fall short and counter him regularly enough to force a late stoppage, somewhere between round nine and ten, available at 7/1.

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